๐Ÿ“Š Original Research ยท FY2022 Data

The SSDI Approval Lottery: How Much Your State Matters

We analyzed 1.68 million disability decisions. Your odds of approval vary by nearly 40 percentage points depending on which state processes your claim.

๐Ÿ“… Published May 2026 ๐Ÿ“‚ Source: SSA State Agency Workload Data ๐Ÿ“ All 50 States + D.C.
38.7%
National approval rate โ€” 6 in 10 denied
1,031,474
Americans denied SSDI in FY2022
39.8 pts
Spread between best and worst state
30.8%
Oklahoma โ€” the hardest state to get approved

The Same Program. Wildly Different Outcomes.

Social Security Disability Insurance is a federal program with uniform eligibility rules. Whether you live in Oklahoma or Kansas, the law says the same thing about who qualifies. The SSA's Blue Book of medical conditions doesn't change by ZIP code. The five-step evaluation process is identical coast to coast.

And yet, your odds of getting approved at the initial decision level differ by nearly 40 percentage points depending on which state's Disability Determination Services (DDS) office handles your file.

That's not a rounding error. That's a system that produces dramatically different outcomes for people with the same conditions โ€” based entirely on geography.

๐Ÿšจ The Headline Number

In FY2022, Oklahoma approved just 30.8% of initial claims. Kansas approved 54.9%. A claimant with the same disability is 79% more likely to be approved in Kansas than in Oklahoma โ€” same federal program, same rules.

Why States Vary So Much

Each state runs its own DDS office โ€” a state government agency that makes initial disability decisions under contract with SSA. Though they're supposed to follow identical federal guidelines, outcomes differ because:

SSA has published data on state variation for two decades. The disparities have not been corrected. In fact, as our data shows, the gap between the best and worst states has remained stubbornly wide across multiple fiscal years.

Regional Picture

The pattern isn't random โ€” it follows clear regional lines. The South denies at the highest rate. The Northeast and Midwest are more claimant-friendly. These aren't small differences.

๐Ÿ”ด South
36.6%
Hardest region โ€” every Southern state except Maryland falls below the national average
๐ŸŸก Midwest
42.5%
Near national average โ€” wide variation within region
๐ŸŸก West
42.6%
Near national average โ€” California drags the region down
๐ŸŸข Northeast
44.1%
Most claimant-friendly region โ€” 7.5 points above the South
โš ๏ธ California's Hidden Problem

Despite being a blue state with strong worker protections, California approves only 37.2% of initial claims โ€” below the national average. With 164,597 decisions processed in FY2022, California denied more people (103,355) than most states have total applicants.

Full State Rankings: FY2022

Sort by approval rate, total decisions, or number of people denied. Green = top third. Red = bottom third.

Rank โ†• State โ†• Approval Rate โ†• Total Decisions โ†• Approved โ†• Denied โ†•
1Washington, D.C.29.8%
6,8362,0344,802
2Oklahoma30.8%
29,5009,08620,414
3Kentucky32.8%
43,09714,12628,971
4West Virginia33.3%
15,7565,24210,514
5Alabama33.5%
39,96713,39726,570
6Mississippi34.1%
28,9949,88319,111
7Indiana34.3%
46,42515,93930,486
8New Mexico34.4%
13,2884,5738,715
9Arizona35.0%
27,1729,51917,653
10Georgia35.3%
58,81220,75138,061
11Texas35.3%
131,58846,45885,130
12North Carolina35.9%
58,78121,11137,670
13California37.2%
164,59761,242103,355
14Colorado37.8%
16,2356,14010,095
15Florida38.0%
104,07439,57664,498
16Arkansas38.2%
25,7079,81415,893
17Delaware38.3%
4,8021,8402,962
18Louisiana38.4%
33,63612,92420,712
19Hawaii38.7%
5,1051,9743,131
20Tennessee38.9%
35,22913,70121,528
21Ohio39.0%
78,55730,62547,932
22Utah39.1%
11,8074,6137,194
23South Dakota39.2%
5,2782,0673,211
24Illinois39.2%
48,39618,97229,424
25Nevada39.7%
12,5534,9797,574
26Pennsylvania40.4%
81,37132,88248,489
27New York40.4%
101,88941,20560,684
28Michigan41.0%
61,05425,05436,000
29Washington41.1%
29,94612,31617,630
30Virginia41.3%
45,70718,86726,840
31North Dakota41.7%
3,2261,3441,882
32New Jersey41.7%
39,62616,51023,116
33Missouri41.9%
42,79217,92324,869
34Maine42.7%
8,3903,5824,808
35South Carolina42.8%
25,07510,72814,347
36Idaho42.8%
9,8124,2005,612
37Wisconsin43.0%
24,02110,33013,691
38Iowa43.1%
18,1677,83810,329
39Connecticut44.0%
18,7618,25910,502
40Minnesota44.2%
25,49411,26714,227
41Wyoming44.6%
2,6751,1921,483
42Vermont44.8%
3,4811,5581,923
43Oregon46.0%
15,2307,0088,222
44Maryland46.3%
19,9299,23410,695
45Massachusetts46.8%
26,54812,41314,135
46Rhode Island46.9%
6,3973,0023,395
47Montana47.8%
3,2441,5501,694
48Nebraska49.1%
8,8164,3264,490
49New Hampshire49.4%
6,3703,1473,223
50Kansas54.9%
7,1433,9193,224
51Alaska69.5%
1,174816358
๐Ÿ’ก Note on Alaska

Alaska's 69.5% approval rate is statistically unusual โ€” only 1,174 total decisions, making it an outlier. Kansas at 54.9% with 7,143 decisions is a more meaningful best-in-class comparison for most states.

What This Means If You've Been Denied

Being denied doesn't mean you don't qualify. It may mean your state's DDS office has a culture of denial โ€” and that an appeal, handled correctly, can reverse that outcome.

At the Appeals Council and ALJ hearing level, national approval rates rise to approximately 55%. Claimants who work with a disability advocate or attorney win at significantly higher rates than those who appeal alone.

โœ… The Appeal Opportunity

Over 1 million people were denied at the initial level in FY2022. Most of them never appealed. SSA data consistently shows that claimants who appeal โ€” especially with professional help โ€” win at rates that dwarf initial approvals.

Denied in a Low-Approval State?

Your state's approval rate doesn't have to be your outcome. Get a free case review from a disability advocate โ€” we only get paid if you win.

Get Free Case Review โ†’

No upfront cost ยท No obligation ยท Contingency only

Methodology

Source: Social Security Administration, State Agency Fiscal Year Workload Data (SSA-SA-FYWL.csv), updated March 2023.

Metric: "Favorable Determination Rate" โ€” approvals divided by total medical determinations at the initial DDS level.

Fiscal Year: 2022 (October 2021 โ€“ September 2022).

Scope: 50 states plus Washington D.C. Puerto Rico, Guam, and federal component rows excluded. Total: 1,682,530 decisions analyzed.

Note: This measures initial DDS determinations only. It does not include reconsideration or ALJ hearing outcomes, which have higher approval rates nationally.

This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. SSDI eligibility is determined by the Social Security Administration based on individual medical and work history. DeniedSSDI.com connects claimants with independent disability advocates and attorneys.